mwb research hosted an online roundtable with ABO Kraft & Wärme’s Chairman and anchor investor Dr. Jochen Ahn and Commercial Manager Jörg Frensch, discussing the company’s business model, regulatory environment, and growth strategy. ABO Kraft & Wärme operates biogas plants in Germany, generating biogas, electricity, heat, and biomethane from organic waste. The company focuses on acquiring biogas plants nearing the end of their EEG subsidies and converting them to produce biomethane from manure, thereby benefiting from greenhouse gas quotas. Despite recent price volatility related to oversupply and fraud, the medium-term outlook is promising. ABO Kraft & Wärme remains one of the few good opportunities to diversify a sustainable portfolio into biogas and biomethane. mwb research’s analysts confirm their Spec. BUY with a target price of EUR 1.60. A recording of the event is available here: https://research-hub.de/events. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/ABO%20Kraft%20&%20W%C3%A4rme%20AG

Circus is revolutionizing the food service industry with its cutting-edge autonomous robotic kitchen, the Circus Autonomy One (CA-1), a fully automated, AI-driven system capable of preparing up to 120 dishes per hour, offering unmatched efficiency and versatility. Backed by EUR 40m in R&D and over 1 million meals already sold, Circus leverages its early mover advantage and razor-blade model to drive recurring high-margin SaaS revenue. With pre-orders for 8,400 units worth EUR 1.8 billion, partnerships with major players like Strabag and IHG, and a market potential spanning 80 million global locations, demand looks set to be sky-high. As CEO Nikolas Bullwinkel—former co-founder and unicorn-builder of Flink—leads the charge, Circus is poised for explosive growth, constrained only by supply capacity. Circus offers investors a rare opportunity to back a true game-changer in an industry that is larger than the global automotive market and ripe for disruption. mwb research’s analysts initiate the coverage of Circus SE with a BUY recommendation and a PT of EUR 75.00 offering an upside potential of 215%. The full update can be downloaded under https://research-hub.de/companies/circus-se

Suedzucker (“SZU”) continued to experience a challenging business environment in Q3 24/25, troubled by falling prices for sugar, ethanol food and animal feed and starch products. As already cautioned by management, Q3 was a dull quarter. Revenues declined 12% yoy to EUR 2.4bn, EBITDA fell 79% yoy to EUR 82m and the company reported a negative operating result of EUR 33m (vs Q3 FY 23/34: EUR 268m profits). All segments, except Fruit, witnessed declines in their top-line and profitability during the quarter. Management reiterated its guidance for FY 24/25, which it had cut during the Q2 prelims. It continues to guide for consolidated group revenues of EUR 9.5bn9.9bn, EBITDA of EUR 550m-650m and group operating profit of EUR 175m-275m. With no recovery in prices in sight in the near future, mwb research’s analysts maintain their SELL rating with unchanged PT of EUR 9.00, representing a c.12% downside risk. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/Suedzucker%20AG

Following a turbulent 2024 that saw Siltronic’s stock tumble nearly 50%, investors are keenly awaiting the Q4 prelims on February 4. The company remains under pressure from elevated inventories and weak demand across key end markets, with the AI and data center boom offering only partial relief. For FY24, mwb research projects revenue of EUR 1.41bn (-6.7% yoy) and a flat Q4 top line of EUR 360m, weighed down by softer volumes and FX headwinds. mwb research’s analysts expect the EBITDA margin to land at 25.4%, slightly above guidance midpoint, while EPS is forecasted at EUR 2.33 (-62% yoy), further impacted by higher interest costs from heavy capex. While headwinds are likely to persist into 2025, Siltronic’s depressed valuation presents a compelling risk-reward case, with potential for a sharp rebound given the cyclical nature of the wafer industry. mwb research’s analysts reiterate their BUY rating with an unchanged price target of EUR 80.00. The full update can be downloaded under https://research-hub.de/companies/Siltronic%20AG

Photon Energy reported significant progress on its 250 MW concentrated solar power plant with 1.8 GWh (12 hours) of thermal hydro storage in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. The project has secured favorable grid connection terms, and advanced the environmental impact assessments and zoning processes, with ready-to-build status expected by Q2 2026. This project is strategically important as it establishes Photon Energy’s presence in emerging markets and could leverage Eskom’s regional influence. It will be the largest deployment of RayGen technology, in which Photon Energy holds a 5.4% stake. Success could serve as a blueprint for future installations and boost the value of Photon’s investment. mwb research’s analysts confirm their Spec. BUY rating with a price target of EUR 1.40. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/Photon%20Energy%20NV

Nordex announced a strong Q4 24 order intake of 3.3 GW, a 32% increase compared to Q4 23, with a higher average sales price of EUR 0.89m per MW. This boosted the company's full-year order intake to an all-time high of 8.34 GW for FY24, surpassing previous records. The average sales price for the year rose to EUR 0.9m per MW, resulting in an order intake value of EUR 7.49bn, a 21% increase from FY23. Despite this positive performance, there are concerns in the market about potential political and economic risks, especially in Germany and North America. mwb research’s analysts remain cautious but optimistic, reiterate their BUY rating with a PT of EUR 20.00, reflecting an upside potential of 68.5% based on conservative estimates. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/Nordex%20SE.

Daimler Trucks (DTG) announced weak unit sales in Q4 24, with a significant yoy decline, primarily due to the poor performance of Mercedes-Benz (Europe) and Truck Asia. While Trucks North America reported a smaller decline and Daimler Buses a slight increase, the overall trend remains worrisome. After similar declines in previous quarters, DTG only reached the lower end of its unit sales guidance for 2024. Ongoing economic difficulties in Europe could soon spill over to North America, compounded by geopolitical risks and potential price erosion. In addition, the shift to electrification raises concerns about the ability of electric trucks to deliver the same level of added value to DTG as diesel models, potentially leading to automotive-style margin pressure. As a result, mwb research’s analysts have slightly lowered their estimates, revised their PT to EUR 33.00 (from EUR 35.00) and maintained their SELL rating due to the increased risks. The full update is available at https://www.research-hub.de/companies/Daimler%20Truck%20Holding%20AG

Traton SE announced modest unit sales growth in Q4 24, driven by strong demand in the Americas, particularly at International Motors (North America). Volkswagen Trucks & Bus also performed well, supported by growth in South America. However, the European operations faced challenges, in particular with a decline in the MAN division and a more moderate decline in unit sales at Scania, reflecting the ongoing economic difficulties. Overall, unit sales in FY24 were down slightly, with key regions such as Europe underperforming. Looking ahead to FY25, Traton continues to face risks from economic slowdowns, geopolitical factors and potential price pressure. As a result, mwb research’s updates lower their estimates, reduce their PT to EUR 29.00 (from EUR 34.00) and downgrade their rating from BUY to HOLD, reflecting the increased economic and political risks. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/Traton%20SE

Vulcan Energy Resources has successfully produced battery-grade Lithium Hydroxide Monohydrate (LHM) at its Central Lithium Electrolysis Optimisation Plant (CLEOP) in Frankfurt. This demonstrates the viability of Vulcan’s fully integrated LHM production. The LHM will undergo pre-commercial qualification with major offtakers, including Stellantis, Renault, LG, and Umicore, paving the way for large-scale commercial production in Phase One. Meanwhile, Vulcan has secured substantial financial commitments and is awaiting the signing of definitive financing agreements and subsequent draw-down. mwb research’s analysts confirm their PT of EUR 12.50 and maintain their BUY rating. The previous update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/research/Vulcan%20Energy%20Resources

Verbio SE's share price took a significant hit yesterday, dropping by 16.5%, following a 40% decline in 2024. This is due to the challenges of a tough FY23/24, marked by market disruptions including dumped biodiesel from China, and a challenging start to FY24/25. Despite no additional factors, concerns remain, such as the decline in emission certificate prices. However, there are signs of potential improvement rather than deterioration. Looking ahead to 2025, regulatory changes in Germany and anti-dumping duties on Chinese biodiesel offer hope of higher greenhouse gas (GHG) quota prices and reduced market pressure. Verbio's international expansion, particularly in the US, further supports its growth prospects. With a strong market position, Verbio remains a solid long-term investment, although mwb research’s analysts have lowered their near-term estimates. The analysts reiterate their BUY rating with a revised PT of EUR 22.00 (from EUR 24.00). The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/Verbio%20SE