Airbus heads into its FY25E (publication: 19 February) results with solid operational delivery but limited upside. We expect FY25 revenues of EUR 74.1bn, EBIT of EUR 6.5bn and EPS of EUR 6.72, with EPS inflated by the financial result due to the 10.6% stake in Dassault Aviation, creating a negative base effect into FY26. The key focus will be 2026 delivery guidance. After years of overly ambitious targets, we expect a more cautious tone and model 870 deliveries versus prior market hopes of around 900. At the same time, competitive risks are rising: COMAC is gaining traction as a credible challenger from 2030 onwards, a risk still underpriced given Airbus’ strong APAC exposure. On the defense side, FCAS optimism continues to fade amid governance disputes and weakening political backing, putting the defense-driven rally increasingly at risk. With solid operations but valuation stretched, we reiterate SELL. Price target EUR 175.00. The full update can be downloaded under https://research-hub.de/companies/airbus-se

TUI reported broadly in-line Q1 FY26 results, a seasonally weak quarter, with stable revenue of EUR 4.9bn and underlying EBIT rising EUR 26m yoy to EUR 77m. This was supported by record cruise performance and improving losses in Markets + Airline, partly offset by hurricane-related hotel closures and FX effects. Holiday Experiences grew modestly, led by Cruises and TUI Musement, while Markets + Airline declined slightly due to currency headwinds and a deliberate reduction in own-risk capacity. Management reaffirmed full-year guidance for 2-4% revenue growth and 7-10% EBIT growth, despite a mixed trading outlook marked by competitive booking trends in Markets + Airline and cautious demand in Hotels & Resorts, contrasted with strong absorption of expanded cruise capacity. The balance sheet continued to strengthen, with net debt reduced to EUR 3.6bn, enabling the resumption of a EUR 0.10 dividend and the introduction of a 10–20% payout policy from FY26. We reiterate our BUY rating with an unchanged EUR 16.00 price target. The full update can be downloaded under https://research-hub.de/companies/tui-ag

Scout24’s share price has fallen to a new 52-week low following a sentiment-driven sell-off in platform and software stocks amid renewed AI concerns. Importantly, this de-rating has not been triggered by a deterioration in fundamentals. Scout24 continues to benefit from a resilient marketplace ecosystem, strong pricing power and highly visible cash generation. On a 9M basis, the company has generated around EUR 200m in free cash flow with conversion of roughly 70% of ordinary operating EBITDA. Disciplined capital allocation, including substantial share buybacks, further enhances free cash flow per share. At current levels, the valuation appears disconnected from the company’s long-term cash flow compounding potential, offering an attractive opportunity for quality-oriented investors. We reiterate our BUY rating and PT EUR 129.00. The full update can be downloaded under https://research-hub.de/companies/scout24-se

TKMS is heading into Q1 earnings with solid operational momentum and limited downside risk. We expect sales of around EUR 545m, compared to EUR 569m last year, and adjusted EBIT of approximately EUR 24m, compared to EUR 31m. The apparent year-on-year decline is largely driven by the effects of the IFRS 15 accounting standard, rather than underlying execution. Project progress remains stable and consistent with last year, meaning that last year's figures are not fully comparable and overstate the perceived slowdown. Looking beyond Q1, we believe that an upgrade to the margin guidance is increasingly likely. Current mid-term EBIT guidance of >7% appears increasingly conservative in light of structurally tight yard capacity, improving pricing power and execution tracking ahead of legacy assumptions. Together with sizeable tender potential in surface vessels and submarines, this supports an attractive risk-reward profile and underpins our price target of EUR 125.00. BUY The full update can be downloaded under https://research-hub.de/companies/tkms-ag-co-kgaa

Bechtle AG reported preliminary FY25 results broadly in line with expectations, confirming a good year-end performance despite a challenging market. Business volume rose 8% to EUR 8.6bn, while revenue increased 2% to EUR 6.4bn. FY25 EBT reached about EUR 324m, close to forecasts, with Q4 momentum driven by recovering municipal demand. However, FY-margins remained under pressure due to cautious investment behavior among SMEs and public-sector uncertainty. Management’s FY26 outlook is cautiously optimistic and highlights demand volatility, pricing risks, and potential supply bottlenecks. Given these uncertainties, the HOLD rating is maintained with a revised EUR 44.00 (before EUR 48.00) price target. The full update can be downloaded under https://research-hub.de/companies/bechtle-ag

Staige One AG (“Staige”) reported preliminary FY25 results with revenues of c. EUR 2.1m and EBITDA of around EUR -2.4m, reflecting a clear top-line shortfall versus expectations, while profitability remained broadly in line. Sequential improvement in H2 FY25 confirms operating leverage and disciplined cost management. Importantly, management disclosed an industrial and public-sector pipeline exceeding EUR 6m, including a growing share of scalable, license-based opportunities, with initial six-figure revenues already realized. FY26 guidance of c. EUR 4.0m revenues and EBITDA break-even implies a reset but appears achievable given pipeline visibility and run-rate momentum. Despite elevated execution risk, the improved qualitative profile supports continued upside optionality. We therefore reiterate our Spec. BUY but with lower PT of EUR 2.50 (prev. EUR 3.30). The full update can be downloaded under https://research-hub.de/companies/staige-one-ag

Mayr-Melnhof has announced a non-cash EUR 65–75m impairment in FY25 for its Board & Paper division, reflecting cautious long-term cash flow assumptions in a structurally challenged market. Importantly, the FY25 outlook signals operational resilience, with adjusted EBITDA and adjusted operating profit expected at roughly the same level as in FY24. Earnings quality is expected to improve gradually, supported by the successful ramp-up of the “Fit-for-Future” program, which targets more than EUR 150m in sustainable profit improvements by 2027. Despite ongoing sector pressure, MM’s strong asset quality, solid balance sheet and valuation below book value provide a robust foundation for upside, supporting our BUY rating. We adjust estimates mainly to reflect the impairment charge and confirm our price target of EUR 110.00. The full update can be downloaded under https://research-hub.de/companies/mayr-melnhof-karton-ag

Siemens Healthineers (SHL) delivered a solid Q1 FY26, confirming guidance despite ongoing weakness in China. Revenue rose 3.8% yoy to EUR 5.4bn, driven by strong performances in Imaging (+5.7% yoy) and Precision Therapy (+5.9% yoy), both showing stable or improving margins. However, Diagnostics declined 3.1% yoy due to China’s sourcing policies, with adj. EBIT margin falling to 2.1%. Adjusted EPS decreased 3% to EUR 0.49, although underlying growth excluding FX and tariffs reached ~17% yoy. SHL reiterated its FY26 outlook, supported by strength in core segments and strategic initiatives underpin the targets. However, we only anticipate revenues at the lower end of guidance range, due to continued weakness in China and persistent FX/tariff burdens. With only smaller fine-tuning changes to our estimates, we reduce our price target to EUR 53.00 (before EUR 56.00). Remains a BUY. The full update can be downloaded under https://research-hub.de/companies/siemens-healthineers-ag

RENK held its Q4 pre-close call yesterday which mostly confirmed our estimates. Year-end execution was strong, supported by resilient defense OEM demand, with VMS once again the key growth driver and adj. EBIT expected to land close to our expectations. However, FCF could disappoint optically due to the timing shift of advanced payments into Q1 2026. The low cash conversion under our estimates understates underlying performance and largely reverses in FY26E. Absent this timing effect, Q4 FCF would have materially exceeded consensus. FY25 guidance of EUR 210–235m adj. EBIT remains achievable despite multiple headwinds, underlining strong cost discipline. The FY26 outlook remains intact (unlike Rheinmetall’s outlook), supported by a robust German pipeline and high order visibility in VMS, while platform mix and export restrictions remain the key swing factors for revenues and margins. HOLD, PT 53.00. The full update can be downloaded under https://research-hub.de/companies/renk-group-ag

Company Name: Verve Group SE ISIN: SE0018538068   Reason for the research: Anleiheplazierung Recommendation: Kaufen from: 05.02.2026 Target price: €4,50 Target price on sight of: 12 Monate Last rating change: - Analyst: Ellis Acklin First Berlin Equity Research hat ein Research Update zu Verve Group SE (ISIN: SE0018538068)  [ … ]