Cancom released its preliminary FY24 numbers, with revenues and EBITDA coming near the higher-end and at the lower-end of the guidance range, respectively. The top line grew 14% yoy to EUR 1.74bn during the year (Q4: +5% yoy at EUR 484m), registering a slight 1% beat vs consensus. However, EBITDA declined 2% yoy to EUR 113m and fell 5% short of market expectations, which translates to an 18% miss on Q4’s EUR 27m EBITDA (-32% yoy). For FY24, the EBITDA margin deteriorated by 1.1ppt yoy to 6.5% (Q4: -3ppt yoy to 5.5%), indicating to persistent inflationary pressure and high operating overheads. Macro and political uncertainties in key markets are likely to keep results under pressure in the near term and mwb research’s analysts expect a cautious outlook for FY25. That said, the analysts believe, Cancom’s strong position - being the #5 in the DACH region, good M&A track record, strategic investments in high-growth IT sectors such as cloud computing, cybersecurity, and AI and an improving revenue mix should support its long-term growth story. mwb research’s analysts are just fine-tuning their model assumptions with only marginal impact. Hence, the analysts reiterate their BUY rating with a slightly higher PT of EUR 29.50 (old EUR 28.50). The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/Cancom%20SE

At mwb research’s “Focus on IT” conference, CFO Marlene Carl presented CHAPTERS Group’s sharpened focus on mission-critical digital solutions, with digital revenues growing from 41% in 2022 to 86% per 2024, targeting 100% by 2027. Carl highlighted the “Manuscript Method”, a decentralized management strategy that empowers platform heads while maintaining alignment across the group. This approach, paired with a disciplined M&A strategy, positions CHAPTERS for sustained growth. In line with this, the announced acquisition of PSI Transcom expands CHAPTERS’ footprint in mobility solutions. With a revised price target of EUR 34.00 (old: EUR 28.00), the analysts maintain their BUY recommendation, recognizing the company’s strong growth trajectory. You can access a recording here: https://research-hub.de/events/video/2025-02-04-15-30/CHG-GR. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/CHAPTERS%20Group%20AG

Bayer received EU marketing authorization for Beyonttra (acoramidis) to treat transthyretin amyloidosis with cardiomyopathy (ATTR-CM), following positive Phase III results showing reduced mortality and hospitalizations. This oral drug stabilizes transthyretin and slows disease progression, complementing its U.S. FDA approval in November 2024. Bayer holds exclusive marketing rights for Beyonttra in Europe, with a launch expected in early 2025. The approval strengthens Bayer’s pharma portfolio amid revenue pressures, positioning it to compete with Pfizer’s Vyndaqel and capture share in the growing ATTR-CM market, projected to reach EUR 5bn by 2030 in EU alone. Despite financial challenges, Bayer’s successful R&D execution with Beyonttra underscores its strategic focus on high-margin specialty and rare diseases, positioning the company for a strong return to growth in its pharmaceutical segment by 2027. mwb research’s analysts maintain their BUY with an unchanged PT of EUR 31.00. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/Bayer%20AG

Verbio SE announced better-than-expected Q2 24/25 results, with revenues down yoy but EBITDA exceeding forecasts. The Biodiesel segment showed stable sales and strong EBITDA growth, driven by favorable rapeseed oil margins. In contrast, the Bioethanol/Biomethane segment saw a revenue drop and a larger EBITDA loss, impacted by lower prices and changes in financial assets. Verbio revised its FY24/25 EBITDA guidance in January due to technical issues at its US facility and ongoing pressure from low GHG prices. The company now expects mid-double-digit EURm in EBITDA. Despite these hurdles, management remains optimistic about a 2025 recovery, driven by growing demand for CO2 savings and stricter regulations outside Europe. Verbio’s long-term outlook remains positive, with US expansion a key growth driver. mwb research’s analysts maintain their BUY rating with a PT of EUR 16.00. Register here to join the earnings call today at 14:00 (MEZ): https://research-hub.de/events/registration/2025-02-12-14-00/VBK-GR. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/Verbio%20SE

Ceconomy began FY24/25 with strong momentum, outperforming the market. While underlying growth was fueled by solid performances in brick-and-mortar and online channels, with Retail Media and Marketplace scaling rapidly, new Xpress and Smart stores and acquisitions in Germany and Switzerland expanded the company’s footprint. Operating profit improved through better cost control, with DACH leading and Italy showing recovery. Despite challenges in Poland, Ceconomy is addressing competitive pressures. Effective inventory management boosted free cash flow, supporting strong holiday sales. While the FY outlook has been confirmed, Ceconomy remains on a solid path. mwb research’s analysts raise their price target to EUR 3.75 (EUR 3.50) and maintain their BUY rating. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/Ceconomy%20AG

Amadeus Fire reported prelim. results for Q4/FY24, showing resilience (FY revenues down only 1.2% yoy) in the face of challenging economic conditions. However, Q4 showed a more pronounced decline of 11% yoy, highlighting the ongoing (and deteriorating) negative sentiment among German businesses and political uncertainties. The operating gross profit margin declined by 80 bps to 54.2%, resulting in a 3% yoy decline in operating gross profit. Nevertheless, EBITA declined by c. 21% yoy to EUR 55.5m, slightly below the company's guidance of EUR 58m, as Amadeus has limited scope to adjust costs, and if so, only with a time lag. Looking ahead, the negative sentiment in Germany is likely to persist, potentially setting the company up for another weak financial year. However, bold investors should be able to capture some upside optionality, as the analysts of mwb research believe most of the weaknesses are already priced into Amadeus' share price. The analysts therefore reiterate their BUY rating with an unchanged PT of EUR 105.00. The full update can be found on https://www.research-hub.de/companies/Amadeus%20FiRe%20AG

Nemetschek’s Investor Relations manager, Patrick Horch, participated in mwb research’s well-attended ‘Focus on IT’ conference, providing insights into the company’s latest business developments. A recording of the presentation can be found here: mwb research | Digital ResearchHub | Equity Research. Nemetschek is capitalizing on the digital transformation of the construction and design software industry, leveraging AI integration and a diversified revenue base across key segments. Preliminary FY24 results show a 17% yoy revenue increase to EUR 996m, driven by strong organic growth and the GoCanvas acquisition, with recurring revenues now exceeding 86% due to the transition to SaaS. The successful integration of GoCanvas reduces the dependency on European markets and is expected to improve profitability in the medium term. Despite the price target increase to EUR 117.00 (old EUR 110.00), the HOLD rating is maintained due to limited near-term catalysts and a rich valuation. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/research/Nemetschek%20SE

Gerresheimer (GXI) has confirmed that it is in preliminary discussions with private equity investors. According to GXI, these investors have expressed an interest in exploring a possible public takeover offer on a non-binding basis. In mwb research’s view, this is a clear sign that the mostly US-based investors consider German SMEs to be undervalued. In mwb research’s believes, GXI is an attractive target that trades well below its peer group valuation (EV/EBIT '25 of 14x vs. 24x peer median). For a successful takeover, PE investors would have to offer a premium that the analysts believe should be at least 30% above the 3-months volume-weighted average price of EUR 74.38. With estimates unchanged, the analysts reiterate their BUY rating with a price target of EUR 96.00. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/research/Gerresheimer%20AG

Following the chip shortage crisis, the automotive semiconductor cycle peaked in late 2023 and entered a correction phase in 2024, marked by inventory gluts and muted chip orders. This is expected to persist through H1 2025, with gradual recovery anticipated in H2 2025 and a new growth cycle to begin in 2026 driven by structural trends. Modest price erosion of 2-3% is expected as supply chains normalize. Mwb research’s analysts have already factored in the impact on Elmos and yet remain confidently bullish at current valuations heading into 2025. Elmos outperformed its peers during the 2024 downturn, and the analysts expect this momentum to continue as the market recovers. mwb research’s analysts reiterate their BUY rating with a PT of EUR 98.00. The full update can be downloaded under https://research-hub.de/companies/Elmos%20Semiconductor%20SE

Airbus is grappling with multiple headwinds that undermine its growth prospects and valuation. The significant delay of its hydrogen-powered ZEROe project, now potentially pushed from 2035 to 2045, not only stalls its efforts in sustainable aviation but also erodes a key pillar of its long-term growth strategy under the net-zero agenda. This delay, combined with the discontinuation of its Beluga Transport operations, highlights broader operational and innovation challenges. Financially, Airbus is struggling with a ROCE of just 8%, barely covering capital costs, while facing intensified competition from COMAC, whose rapid production expansion threatens Airbus’s margins and market share. A sharp 72% drop in gross orders further signals the end of the post-pandemic recovery cycle. With 51% of the DCF valuation tied to terminal value—highly sensitive to these negative developments—the stock appears significantly overvalued. mwb research’s analysts therefore maintain their SELL rating and a price target of EUR 127.00, urging investors to take profits amid growing risks. The full update can be downloaded under https://www.research-hub.de/companies/Airbus%20SE