Company Name: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA ISIN: DE0005493092   Reason for the research: Update Recommendation: BUY Target price: EUR 5.1 Target price on sight of: 12 months Last rating change: Analyst: Philipp Sennewald Title hopes gone for 25/26 season; Chg.Topic: Within four days BVB got knocked out of the 2025/26 UCL  [ … ]

We see AIXTRON potentially entering the early stages of a structural multi-year AI-driven optoelectronics upcycle, as hyperscaler data center buildouts accelerate demand for optical interconnects. Management expects demand for datacom laser to more than double yoy in 2026, supported by the G10-AsP platform’s positioning in indium phosphide epitaxy. Cross-read signals point to aggressive InP capacity expansion, tight laser supply and multi-year visibility, while Nvidia’s USD 4bn strategic investments in optical suppliers underscore the importance of securing photonics capacity for AI scaling. We adjust our model and raise our price target to EUR 30.00 but maintain our HOLD rating on valuation and uncertainty regarding both the magnitude and timing of AI GaN orders, as well as the trajectory of a meaningful SiC recovery. The full update can be downloaded under https://research-hub.de/companies/aixtron-se

Following discussions with Siemens Energy (SE), we have extended our supercycle assumptions and now expect elevated activity through 2029, compared with our previous expectation of a peak in 2027. Growth and margins are now projected to normalize from 2030 onward, supported by continued strong order momentum. Nevertheless, the cycle remains exposed to risks. Rising supply, intensifying competition and potential price pressure could gradually weigh on growth and profitability. In the US, AI-driven electricity demand continues to support investment in generation and grid infrastructure, although macroeconomic risks such as a recession or higher gas prices could dampen demand. In Europe, slower electrification and high capital costs may constrain growth. Given SE’s demanding valuation, with a 2026E P/E of 43.9x, we view the risk-reward as unbalanced. We raise our price target to EUR 89.00 from EUR 86.00 but maintain our SELL rating. The full update can be downloaded under https://research-hub.de/companies/siemens-energy-ag

Delivery Hero’s FY25 trading update showed continued operational progress but came in slightly below market expectations. Q4 GMV (gross merchandise volume) and revenue missed consensus modestly, while regional trends showed accelerating momentum in MENA and stabilization in Asia. Full-year performance confirmed solid top-line growth outpacing GMV growth, EUR 900m+ adjusted EBITDA and over EUR 200m FCF (excl. extraordinary items). Integrated Verticals reached break-even and Quick Commerce surpassed EUR 7.5bn GMV. However, limited FY26 visibility due to lack of formal guidance, ongoing multi-year investment in Quick Commerce, strategic review uncertainty and rising geopolitical risks in MENA temper near-term confidence. We pushed our projected step in earnings growth beyond 2026 (management expects only moderate adj. EBITDA growth), resulting in lower FY26 earnings estimates. At the same time, we increased beta to reflect higher risk, resulting in higher WACC. Consequently, we cut our price target from EUR 43.00 to EUR 28.00. We maintain our BUY rating. The full update can be downloaded under https://research-hub.de/companies/delivery-hero-se

Shares of United Internet (UI) and its subsidiary 1&1 AG rose sharply (+11% since Friday) following a report by El Español that Telefónica is discussing a potential acquisition of 1&1. The rumored valuation of EUR 4.5 - 5.0bn implies a multiple on 2024 EBITDA of c. 8x. While the speculation targets 1&1, UI holds ~80% and would be directly impacted. The rally reflects perceived valuation support and potential deleveraging. However, there is no confirmation, transaction structure, or regulatory clarity. Given 1&1’s central role in UI’s telecom exposure, ownership changes would materially alter the group profile. We view the move as event-driven and reiterate HOLD with an unchanged EUR 30.00 PT. The full update can be downloaded under https://research-hub.de/companies/united-internet-ag

Company Name: EPH Group AG ISIN: AT0000A34DM3   Reason for the research: Update Recommendation: BUY Target price: EUR 102 Target price on sight of: 12 months Last rating change: Analyst: Philipp Sennewald EPH enters Germany with two lakefront projects EPH announced a principal agreement to acquire two premium hotel developments a [ … ]

EDAG is a leading independent engineering services provider with strong automotive roots and a growing presence in defense and industrial markets, where its automotive expertise is a key advantage. Its business spans the full vehicle lifecycle, driven by automotive OEM R&D programs as the main source of project orders. Dependence on European OEMs, covering almost all major players, is mitigated by strong client relationships and proven expertise, while long-term growth is supported by electrification, software integration, and automation. An expected renewed R&D spending cycle by European OEMs, combined with diversification, such as into the growing defense industry, overseas capacity shifts, and workforce restructuring, supports the mid-term outlook. Furthermore, trading at a historically wide discount, the stock offers significant upside once the negative automotive R&D cycle rebounds, as it always has. We initiate with a BUY rating and a PT of EUR 6.50, implying upside of 69%. The full update can be downloaded under https://research-hub.de/companies/edag-engineering-group-ag

BASF released detailed 2025 results that were in line with its preliminary numbers. Revenues (excluding discontinued operations) declined 5.6% yoy to EUR 14.03bn and adj. EBITDA fell 27.9% yoy to EUR 1.03bn in Q4, as operational weakness persisted in the upstream business, with pricing and FX headwinds and still depressed volumes. On the positive side, FCF in FY25 improved materially from EUR 0.75bn to EUR 1.34bn, beating expectations by around 37%, driven by lower investment outlays and a material contribution from Wintershall Dea. Management expects demand to remain subdued in the near-term and guides for adj. EBITDA of EUR 6.2bn-7.0bn for 2026 (flat yoy at the mid-point) and FCF of EUR 1.5bn-2.3bn (2025: EUR 1.3bn) on reduced capex and one-offs. Net, we see the near-term earnings softness (pricing/FX) increasingly counterbalanced by tangible capital discipline, cost execution, and value crystallization in the stand-alone businesses. That said, the key risk to the call remains a longer-than-expected upstream margin trough in Europe amid competitiveness/Emissions Trading System uncertainties and delayed demand normalization. As the share price approaching our fair value, we downgrade from BUY to HOLD with unchanged price target at EUR 52.00, implying roughly 9.5x EV/adj EBITDA. The full update can be downloaded under https://research-hub.de/companies/basf-se

Middle East exposure is immaterial for HENSOLDT and does not change the equity story. Regional defense budgets are well below EU and US levels, with spending in key markets such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE largely directed toward US supplied air and missile defence. Israel primarily sources from domestic champions including Elbit Systems (ESLT:IT) and Israel Aerospace Industries. We estimate HENSOLDT’s revenue exposure to the region at ~3 % of sales. While HENSOLDT supplies the TRML 4D radar for IRIS T SLM via Diehl Defence, we see no confirmed regional orders and limited near term probability given US incumbency from Raytheon Technologies (RTX:US) and Lockheed Martin (LMT:US). Therefore, financial impact should be negligible. Any share price reaction is likely sentiment driven. Structural upside remains tied to German and European rearmament. PT EUR 57.00, SELL. The full update can be downloaded under https://research-hub.de/companies/hensoldt-ag

Cicor will report FY25 results on 5 March. We see limited downside risk to our FY25 estimates after the January guidance reset following the terminated TT acquisition. Cicor highlighted CHF 10m in one-offs for 2025, cutting reported EBITDA guidance to CHF 53-57m, while adjusted EBITDA remains CHF 63-67m (mwb est. CHF 65m). Also, we refreshed FY26/27 assumptions to reflect CHF strength versus EUR, creating a translation headwind, while ramp-up and integration effects (largely related to Éolane) back-end load the margin build into Q4 and 2027. We reiterate our BUY rating with a revised PT of CHF 185.00 (old: CHF 200.00). The full update can be downloaded under https://research-hub.de/companies/cicor-technologies-ltd